Gachagua courts Kajiado as he seeks to build support outside Mt Kenya

The rising prominence of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, now regarded as a political kingpin of Mount Kenya, has sparked speculation about the possibility of him breaking away from President William Ruto and running for president in 2027. While there is no current indication that Kindiki intends to do so, the dynamics of Kenyan politics suggest that such a move could be plausible as the election approaches.

Kindiki's recent elevation by the Njuri Ncheke elders, who endorsed him and sought to retain him as Ruto's running mate, has increased his political visibility. This, combined with his government position, provides him with both regional and national political clout, which would be crucial for any presidential bid. However, the relationship between Kindiki and Ruto is a critical factor.

Kindiki would face the challenge of convincing voters beyond the eastern side of Mount Kenya that he can represent the entire region. Moreover, his relationship with Ruto would be significant; he could either resign from government to run against Ruto, remain in office while preparing his campaign, or let a rift develop after the administration's succession question becomes inevitable.

The potential for a split in Mt Kenya's vote, especially if Rigathi Gachagua stays in the race or supports another candidate, adds another layer of complexity. Kindiki's relatively moderate approach might be an advantage in a campaign that emphasizes unity rather than confrontation. Yet, presidential politics requires substantial resources, a well-organized campaign, and a compelling message.

At this stage, Kindiki's political trajectory is closely linked to Ruto's, but as his stature grows, the likelihood of him considering a more prominent role cannot be entirely dismissed. If he were to run, the most pressing political question may not be whether he can win but how he could manage to do so without splitting the very political base he needs to succeed.