What's holding up the Iran-Oman proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

The Iran-Oman proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was nearly finalized last week, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signing an agreement akin to NATO's Article 5. This agreement promised that an attack on one would be considered an attack on all. However, no U.S.-Iran deal was announced despite reports suggesting progress.

The potential U.S.-Iran deal involved ships using lanes closer to Iran or Oman, no tolls, and a demining of the strait. The U.S. feared Iran's response if it escalated against them, leading President Trump to desire the deal by midweek. Iran reportedly changed its demands last-minute, insisting on U.S. lifting of sanctions, allowing oil sales in dollars, and adding tolls.

Senior U.S. officials and Arab officials believe Iran changed its demands after agreeing to the temporary deal. Iran's regime believes escalation will ensure its survival and aims for a "modus vivendi" with the Trump administration, rather than engagement. Meanwhile, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have formed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, pledging to treat an attack on one as an attack on all, reflecting a shift towards new security arrangements outside the U.S. influence.