The emerging deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reportedly recognizes Iran’s control—and the U.S. may have to accept it

A proposed deal between Iran and Oman, discussed by sources, would grant Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would be a significant geopolitical victory for Tehran. The agreement acknowledges Iran's authority over inbound traffic, a concession that has already been made. The U.S. and other Gulf states, however, insist on the strait returning to prewar conditions of unrestricted shipping.

Months of conflict between the U.S. and Iran have not weakened Iran's ability to threaten ships crossing the strait, keeping it closed and disrupting Gulf oil supplies. Talks are ongoing, with details such as the definition of Iran's control and potential fees still to be determined. Iran aims to collect 5-7% of the cargo price, while Oman has proposed around 3%.

The deal is expected to be temporary, paving the way for a longer-term ceasefire negotiation. Iran has threatened retaliation against U.S. energy infrastructure if attacks occur, raising concerns about the vulnerability of Gulf states. The U.S. insists on unrestricted traffic but is not part of the Oman-Iran negotiations. Despite the remaining issues, the emerging deal reflects Iran's growing influence in the region, a fact that the U.S. may have to accept in the short term.