Starlink's mobile ambitions could run into a wall of steel and concrete

Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, aims to provide superior connectivity to major wireless carriers like AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile by 2027. However, an industry veteran warns that the ambitious plan could encounter significant hurdles. Benedict Evans, a former Andreessen Horowitz partner who has long studied mobile technology, highlighted the challenge of delivering reliable coverage in densely-populated urban areas.

He pointed out that obstacles like steel and concrete structures block signals within a 50-yard radius, creating a costly barrier to overcome. Starlink currently serves as a satellite safety net for traditional carriers, extending connectivity to remote regions and emergency situations. By leveraging its satellite constellation, Starlink has become the most profitable revenue stream for Elon Musk's companies, generating $1.66 billion in Q2.

To expand its reach beyond remote areas, SpaceX plans to deploy a substantial number of small stations, functioning as miniature cellular base stations. However, Evans questioned whether the savings from utilizing satellite technology could offset the significant costs of installing these additional infrastructure components, particularly in urban settings.

His analysis is based on the observation that the majority of internet traffic originates from urban and suburban users, requiring Starlink to either construct new infrastructure or rent space from existing providers. Despite the potential for improved service, Evans emphasized that the unique challenges of delivering connectivity in cities with dense infrastructure could pose a significant obstacle to Starlink's ambitious goal of overtaking traditional wireless carriers.