Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $62.20 in countdown to US NFP data

Silver price (XAG/USD) surged to approximately $62.20 during the Asian trading session on Friday, just ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release for July. TD Securities anticipates a slight improvement in the July jobs report after June's surprise decline, projecting a modest 70,000 jobs added. The jobless rate is expected to remain relatively stable at 4.2% after June's decrease.

The employment data is anticipated to have a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate expectations, as central bank guidance is currently absent. On the global front, a resurgence in oil prices due to reduced expectations of an immediate Strait of Hormuz reopening could cap Silver's upside. Meanwhile, the WTI Oil price stabilizes near $77.00, suggesting higher inflation expectations and potential interest rate hikes, which are unfavorable for non-yielding assets like Silver.

XAG/USD is currently trading just above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.66, indicating a constructive near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.27 suggests bullish momentum but not yet excessive. A failure to hold the 20-day EMA at $59.66 could lower Silver to its YTD low of $54.77. Conversely, breaking above the July 6 high of $63.28 could propel prices towards the June 22 high of $67.17.

Silver, a precious metal with various industrial applications and a historically safe-haven status, is influenced by numerous factors such as geopolitical events, interest rates, and economic indicators.