Russia laying groundwork for future provocations against NATO – ISW

Russia is preparing for potential provocations against NATO, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This "Phase Zero" campaign involves setting the scene for false flag operations, drone incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare interference, and overflights. Lithuanian officials have expressed concerns about a possible Russian false-flag operation using captured Ukrainian drones against NATO's eastern flank.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz echoed these worries, warning that Russia might use Ukrainian drones to conduct a sabotage attempt against NATO. Ukrainian military experts have confirmed that Russia is utilizing seized Ukrainian long-range drones for these potential provocations. Despite the warnings, Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis stated that there are no clear signs of imminent Russian aggression against Latvia.

ISW analysts believe Russia is setting the stage for future NATO provocations, possibly through information operations or false flag attacks. Polish Foreign Intelligence Agency head Col. Paweł Szota stated that Russia is ready to send "little green men" into Baltic state territories. However, Lithuania's Ministry of Defense dismissed these claims, asserting that there is currently no objective evidence of Russia preparing a full-scale military attack on the Baltic states.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki has reportedly been warned by the United States about potential armed provocation on Polish territory, which could originate from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, Belarus, or directly from Russian troops crossing the border. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has also suggested that Russia might be planning a false-flag operation using Ukrainian drones.