Novo Nordisk: Europa-Start der Abnehmpille spaltet Hersteller und Analysten

Novo Nordisk, a Danish pharmaceutical company, launched its weight loss pill Wegovy in Germany on September 1st. Emil Larsen, Novo Nordisk's Vice President for International Business, told the Handelsblatt that there are waiting lists and trucks are ready to deliver. The company has much at stake, as it once had the highest market capitalization in Europe but has lost market share to US rival Eli Lilly in the lucrative anti-obesity drug market.

The weight loss pill is expected to change this. Despite a record launch in the US, analysts and investors have not been convinced. However, experts expect a rush in Germany. Berlin-based health provider Voy reported that 15,000 people have already registered for the pill. Telemedicine providers and doctors pre-assess medical suitability for the treatment with the weight loss pill before prescribing it.

Modern GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs have been administered as injections until now. Wegovy pill has been available for longer in other major markets and is the most successful drug launch in history in terms of prescriptions, with over five million prescriptions issued. The launch in Germany is based on the EU approval in July 2026.

Eli Lilly's pill has not yet been approved. The weight loss pill contains semaglutide, the same active ingredient as Novo Nordisk's injection. Weight loss through treatment is around 17 percent, comparable to the injection. The price is expected to be similar to the injection, which costs between 173 and 278 euros per month depending on the dosage.

The market potential in Germany is considered large, with 17 million people in the country suffering from obesity, accounting for about 25 percent of the adult population. In Denmark, up to ten percent of working-age people use weight loss drugs, while in Germany, only two percent do. Data from IQVIA market research firm from April 2026 shows this.

Analysts from JP Morgan's research department expect the global market for weight loss drugs to reach $200 billion by 2030, with a significant share from weight loss pills. Other analysts are more cautious, with the British investment bank Jefferies estimating the market to reach $80 billion. Novo Nordisk was the first to bring a pill to market, but long-term, Eli Lilly could gain a larger market share.

Analysts expect Eli Lilly to capture around 70 percent of the market long-term, Novo Nordisk around 30 percent. This is due to factors such as stronger marketing, a better strategy, and more production capacity. Even with the injection, Eli Lilly managed to overtake Novo Nordisk in Denmark. To continue growing, Novo Nordisk wants to persuade people who currently use the injection to switch to the pill.

"People essentially feel less like patients with the pill," Larsen said. The treatment is not associated with the hurdle of an injection. Unlike Eli Lilly's drug, the pill has no problems with interactions with other medications. Women taking birth control could also use the pill. Novo Nordisk is confident in its production capacity for the expansion.

Which countries will follow next isn't known, but the company plans to launch the pill in several additional European markets by the end of the year. The rollout in other European markets is planned. Novo Nordisk is leading the market for GLP-1 drugs in Germany, ahead of Eli Lilly. They hope to use this lead to attract new patient groups.

They are in talks with the German government, Larsen said, hoping that the anti-obesity drugs will eventually be covered by the health insurance. In Switzerland and the US, weight loss medications are already reimbursed. France recently approved reimbursement for certain patient groups. Novo Nordisk is also talking to employers and insurers about covering the costs of the medication for their employees.

In the US, Novo Nordisk already offers such models. In the UK, Wegovy was approved in June and within three weeks, 300,000 people took the medication, mainly men. This pattern was also seen in Voy's waiting lists, said Sarah Bechstein, a doctor at Voy. In the United Arab Emirates, Novo Nordisk was the second-largest provider of the pill, reaching over 50 percent of the weight loss drug market in a short time.

"We had huge expectations for the pill launch outside the US, but the reality has exceeded our boldest dreams," Larsen said. Unpaid marketing through doctors Novo Nordisk plans to rely on indirect marketing through doctors and telemedicine providers for the pill. As a pharmaceutical company, they believe they can play an important role in marketing the weight loss pill.