The American left is making strides. But can they win in November? | Ben Davis

The American left is making significant progress within the Democratic party, but the question remains: can they secure a victory in the upcoming November elections? The ideological struggle within the Democratic party intensified with primaries held in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, reflecting the growing division among Democratic voters.

Progressives and socialists achieved notable victories, such as Abdul El-Sayed's Senate win, along with downballot victories by candidates like Donavan McKinney and Will Lawrence in congressional races, and Chris Gilmer-Hill in a state legislative seat in Detroit.

However, the scale and breadth of these victories were less than initially expected, despite high Democratic primary turnout and the emergence of a more progressive electorate. While the left has made strides in building a mass base, it still needs to demonstrate its ability to form general-election coalitions capable of defeating Republicans. The left's growth has been slow and challenging, with no single tipping point where party and voters suddenly become committed leftwing partisans.

The left has gained support for democratic socialism and has shifted party leadership's popularity. But, not all left candidates will automatically win, as the actual campaign still heavily influences the outcome. A sizable chunk of Democratic voters remains moderate, cross-pressured, or primarily candidate-driven. Building a leftwing base and transforming it into a durable majority within the Democratic party is a long-term endeavor.

El-Sayed's narrow primary victory, though initially disappointing due to favorable polling, was historically significant. This victory proves that beyond urban cores, the left can win a majority of Democratic voters in a swing state with favorable demographics. The next major challenge for the left is to prove that they can build a general-election coalition in competitive areas, as this will be crucial for winning the Senate, retaining governorships, and preparing for the 2028 presidential primary.

While the left has been successful in primaries against moderate candidates, party institutions, and well-funded outside groups, general elections in swing states present a different and more demanding landscape. This upcoming challenge is vital for the Democrats, not only in the near term but also in the medium and long term.