Russian Oil Production Climbs Above 9 Million Bpd in July

Russia's oil production rose above 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, according to industry sources. The increase was attributed to stronger crude oil and condensate exports and a partial recovery in refinery operations after recent setbacks. From June to July, crude oil and condensate output jumped by approximately 100,000 barrels per day, reaching more than 9 million bpd.

OPEC estimates put Russia's production at 8.928 million bpd in June, a 61,000 bpd decline from May, and 9.129 million bpd for the entire year of 2025. While Russian oil remains crucial for the country's budget, Moscow has a vested interest in maintaining production despite sanctions and attacks on its energy infrastructure. Industry sources suggest that the July production increase was driven by higher crude exports and a recovery in refinery throughput following earlier damage.

However, refinery attacks and export constraints have already negatively impacted production, and limited pipeline and port capacity have made it challenging to redirect displaced refinery barrels abroad. August could present a different scenario, as Ukrainian drone attacks intensified in late July and early August, leading to several refinery suspensions and a fire at a refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region following a drone strike.

Russia plans to boost crude exports from its western ports by 4% in August, but this strategy depends on finding available ships and loading capacity, which is already limited in the Black Sea. The situation highlights the growing challenge for Russia, as damaged refineries can temporarily boost crude exports by freeing barrels that would otherwise be processed domestically, but excessive outages leave producers with excess crude that ports and tankers cannot handle.