If Everything Breaks Right: A path to CFP for each Top 10 team

The College Football Playoff expansion to 12 teams has thrown a wrench into the long-standing notion that a top 10 preseason ranking guarantees a spot in the postseason. Last year, half of the preseason top 10 teams failed to secure a playoff berth, including preseason No. 1 Texas, as well as other well-known programs like Penn State, Notre Dame, Clemson and LSU.

The stakes are high for the current top 10 teams, who face numerous challenges as they navigate the long fall season. Let's examine the keys to success for each of these ambitious squads.

No. 1 Ohio State's path to the playoff hinges on early success on the road against Texas on September 12 and navigating their Big Ten slate. Sweeping Indiana on October 17 and Oregon on November 7 could seal their fate, but a split would likely still secure their place. However, potential pitfalls include unexpected losses at Iowa on October 3 and Southern California on Halloween. A 9-3 record would put them in a tight spot with the committee.

Oregon's nonconference schedule, while not overly demanding, could use some bolstering. Victories against USC on September 26 and Washington on November 28 would give them a comfortable cushion, especially if they prevail in Columbus against Ohio State. However, a second Big Ten loss could prove costly.

Georgia has three crucial games on the schedule - Oklahoma on September 26, Alabama on October 10, and Mississippi on November 7. Winning two of the three would likely do the trick, but a loss or two could prove troublesome, especially against SEC powerhouses. Their schedule features tough matches against Missouri and South Carolina in November, which could pose additional challenges.

Texas' playoff hopes depend on a strong start against Ohio State on September 12. A win in the opener would be monumental, but a loss wouldn't necessarily be a death sentence. Securing 10 wins should be enough, assuming they avoid a Florida loss similar to last year's scenario. A Tennessee game in the league opener could prove especially dangerous.

Notre Dame's focus should be on securing two wins out of their three key games against BYU, Miami and SMU. If they emerge victorious in those games, they'll likely secure a playoff spot. However, losing two of those three could put them in a precarious position, particularly if they face teams in at-large contention. A 10 win mark might not be enough without a strong non-conference schedule.

Indiana's chances rise with a victory over Ohio State on October 17. A win against Michigan on October 24 and a potentially tricky test against Southern California on November 14 would solidify their case. However, a string of consecutive losses to Ohio State and Michigan in November could put the pressure on. A 9-3 record might not be enough to sway the committee without notable non-conference wins.

Miami's path to the playoff features a trio of significant games - Clemson on October 3, Florida State on October 17, and a daunting matchup against Notre Dame on November 7. Winning against Notre Dame would tip the scales in their favor, but a loss could prove challenging. The committee would likely demand more than just a 10-2 record to include Miami in the postseason conversation.