Gold jumps most in 6 months as Hormuz deal progress lowers rate-hike odds

Bullion prices surged to their highest in six months as advancements in resolving the Strait of Hormuz dispute dampened concerns over interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Gold's value rose by 1%, reaching $4,347.90 per ounce after surging 4.1% the previous day, marking the largest gain since February 3. Iran claimed to have reached an agreement with Oman on a temporary shipping route through the strategic waterway, which Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said would be active for two to four months.

President Donald Trump stated that Iran-US negotiations were ongoing and he would consider a deal over military action. The prospect of a resolution to the five-month-long Iran conflict reduced the probability of two more Federal Reserve rate increases by the end of 2026, from two to one. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices as yield-bearing assets become less appealing.

Fed governor Lisa Cook mentioned readiness to raise rates if inflation remains high, warning that it would become increasingly difficult to control. Gold prices have declined by nearly 20% since the US-Iran war commenced in February, driven by escalating energy costs, heightened inflation, and the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates.

Analysts from TD Securities noted that macro headwinds and hopes of an Iran-US deal provided significant support for precious metals. However, a tight energy market remains a significant challenge for a potential rebound in gold prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea is working with domestic producers, the Korea Exchange, and the Korea Securities Depository to create a framework for purchasing domestically produced gold, marking the bank's first such purchase since 1967.