An agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape – but not one Trump wants

Recent developments suggest an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz may be on the horizon, though the desired outcome differs from what President Donald Trump desires. The US President indicated that progress has been made, hinting at a potential deal within days. However, skepticism remains regarding the deal's duration and the parties involved.

Iran has persistently maintained that it is negotiating exclusively with Oman, aiming for a temporary arrangement for the vital waterway. This stance has been tempered by acknowledging the need for third parties not to obstruct the process. Despite this, there are concerns that Iran's delegation does not include representatives from the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which would hold final approval rights.

Iranian officials blame US interference, citing threats from Trump as the main reason for the delay. Meanwhile, US officials have been accused of sending mixed signals, potentially disrupting the negotiations. Iran's stance is centered around the "Iranian arrangements" they seek, which involves merging competing shipping routes while maintaining control over Iran's rights.

These rights include security, de-mining, and maritime services handled by Iran, contrasting with the US and Gulf capitals' perspectives. Iranian officials insist that the legal regime at the strait will not revert to its pre-war state, asserting their desire for control or supervision over the critical waterway. For the US, an arrangement that grants a nation state control over international waters, charged a toll, and could potentially attack ships for non-payment, is seen as a dangerous precedent with the potential to repeat itself globally.