US Dollar: Soft labor firmer services outlook – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists notes that United States (US) JOLTS job openings fell more than expected in June, though they remain elevated versus private indicators. They also expect the United States (US) ISM Services Index to rise in July, projecting 55.0 versus June’s 54.0 and a consensus of 54.5.
TD Securities strategists have revised their outlook for the US labor market and services index. They reported that June's JOLTS job openings fell more than anticipated, standing at 7,359k, compared to the previously estimated 7,537k. Despite this drop, job openings remain elevated compared to private sector indicators. The strategists anticipate that the ISM Services Index will climb to 55.0 in July, up from June's 54.0, with a consensus at 54.5.
Key factors driving this expectation include increased activity, new orders, and some recovery in employment. The revised forecast surpasses the previously published 54.5 figure. Strong manufacturing employment and supplier delivery indices, along with robust high-frequency data, have contributed to this upward revision. The labor market remains relatively tight, as indicated by an unemployment rate close to the BLS trend.
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