Super El Niño may push an already stressed climate ecosystem across a critical threshold, climate change researcher says

Super El Niño, an exceptionally intense phase of the natural climate pattern known as El Niño, is expected to bring unprecedented heat to our already warming world. Jong-Seong Kug, a professor at Seoul National University in South Korea, warns that this year's El Niño may push an already stressed climate system across a critical threshold, potentially triggering irreversible climate regime shifts.

Kug's research indicates that super El Niño events can lead to dramatic and even irreversible shifts in major ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, which is currently close to a tipping point. A super El Niño could cause the Amazon to shift from a lush rainforest to a dry, degraded state, weakening its role as a carbon sink and potentially amplifying global warming.

While Kug emphasizes that his study does not suggest that every super El Niño inevitably leads to a climate regime shift, he urges concern and vigilance for vulnerable regions, particularly those already experiencing severe warming, drying, ecosystem degradation, or ocean stress.

Although we cannot prevent El Niño, Kug suggests that governments should use precise forecasts to strengthen heat health plans, water and food management, flood and wildfire preparedness. He also mentions the potential for climate engineering techniques, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, which could temporarily decrease global temperatures.

However, he cautions that these methods may have unequal impacts across different countries and would require international consensus. Ultimately, Kug stresses the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the most effective long-term solution to mitigate the threat of extreme climate and weather events.