A SpaceX rocket

An abandoned SpaceX rocket stage is set to crash into the moon on Wednesday, August 5, at a speed of 8,700 kmh. The rocket, launched in January 2025, carried two commercial lunar landers on a mission to the moon. After completing its task, the rocket lacked fuel to return to Earth or venture further into space, leading it into an unstable orbit that eventually resulted in the impending collision.

While the crash itself poses no immediate threat, it highlights a looming issue: the lack of a practical framework for regulating activities that alter the lunar environment permanently. As more nations and private companies aim to establish a lasting presence on the moon, coordinating these activities becomes increasingly challenging due to the absence of established guidelines.

For astronomers, the crash presents a unique scientific opportunity. With detailed knowledge of the rocket's size, speed, and the approximate impact location, researchers can study the effects of a lunar impact. The resulting crater, expected to be between 20m and 30m wide, will eject a cloud of lunar dust, known as regolith, several kilometres into the air. This data will help improve computer models of crater formation and lunar dust behavior.

However, the crash raises a crucial question: who is responsible for deciding when humanity permanently changes the moon? Unlike Earth, the moon has no atmosphere or weather, meaning any marks left behind will remain for an extended period. If left untouched, the traces of the crash, like the Apollo landing sites, could persist for thousands of years.

As more missions and activities proliferate on the moon, the risk of unintentional interference with other missions increases. High-speed lunar dust generated by landings could potentially damage equipment, contaminate experiments, or even compromise the safety of people living on the lunar surface. The destruction of historical sites, such as the Apollo landers, would be a significant loss for humanity.

Given the current absence of international processes for governing lunar activities, the accident underscores the need for improved regulation. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits countries from claiming ownership of the moon, is the foundational legal document but provides limited guidance on practical lunar governance.

Institutions like the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) and the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space are working on future solutions, but they face significant challenges due to limited resources and the rapid pace of commercial activity in the lunar sector.