Senators Demand Crackdown On Wildfire 'Prediction Markets'

An assortment of US senators have penned a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), expressing concerns over the agency's proposed crackdown on prediction markets that enable betting on wildfires. The senators represent Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, and argue that allowing such markets could exacerbate the suffering of communities facing destructive wildfires, all in the name of profiting off of others' misfortunes.

The senators specifically mention that the betting site Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 regarding wildfires in Los Angeles, and another platform allowed simulated bets exclusively on California wildfires. Furthermore, state and local fire officials warn that the availability of these markets might tempt individuals to engage in arson to ensure the success of their bets, posing heightened risks to public safety and raising concerns about insider trading.

Polymarket's spokesperson insists that the company does not profit from outcomes, stating that users turn to the platform for information. In contrast, Kalshi, another player in the market, has decided to refrain from offering wildfire markets because they believe such markets create perverse incentives.