Russia Says Its HIV Rates Are Falling. Experts Aren’t So Sure.

In 2026, Russia announced a significant decrease in new HIV infection rates, stating that they had reached a historic low. However, experts remain skeptical about the official statistics, suggesting that the public health crisis surrounding HIV has only worsened due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the mounting pressure on vulnerable populations.

Russia currently ranks fifth globally in terms of the percentage of new HIV infections, accounting for 3.9% of all global cases, according to the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Nevertheless, the accuracy of these figures is questionable due to discrepancies in the data reported by official sources. The Health Ministry reported that HIV incidence had halved since 2016, with 931,000 people living with the virus.

Yet, other organizations estimate a higher figure, ranging from 1.23 million to 1.25 million HIV-positive individuals. Meanwhile, the approach to HIV testing in Russia may be masking the true extent of the epidemic. Evgeny Pisemsky, editor-in-chief of queer media outlet Parni Plus, points out that Russia has consistently prioritized comprehensive testing through general healthcare systems, rather than focusing on high-risk groups like gay and bisexual men, transgender individuals, people who use drugs, and sex workers.

These groups should be prioritized for testing, as they are the ones most susceptible to HIV transmission. Unfortunately, the authorities have failed to effectively work with these vulnerable populations, exacerbating the situation. Furthermore, many organizations that provide HIV prevention and support services to these at-risk groups have either been forced to close due to political pressure or become targets of the Russian government.

For instance, the Elton John AIDS Foundation and the Eurasian Coalition on Health, Rights, Gender, and Sexual Diversity were recently designated as "undesirable organizations," preventing other groups in the country from collaborating with them. The Russian government's crackdown on foreign initiatives and the subsequent financial pressure on HIV organizations have led to a significant reduction in their capacity to provide essential services.

The Andrey Rylkov Foundation, a prominent organization focused on HIV prevention, closed its doors in 2023 after being categorized as a "foreign agent." The SPID Center (AIDS Center) closed its Nizhny Novgorod branch in 2025 due to the inability to secure a presidential grant. The Shagi (Steps) fund, which has been providing HIV prevention services and support for over two decades, warns that it may have to shut down due to insufficient funding.

The Russian government's increasing emphasis on "traditional values," the prohibition of "childfree propaganda," and its ongoing targeting of the LGBTQ+ community further hinder HIV prevention efforts. As discussions surrounding sexuality are increasingly framed as matters of "morality" and "ideological control," promoting condom use and sex education among the general population has become an arduous task.

Authorities are also pushing vulnerable groups like LGBTQ+ individuals, sex workers, and drug users out of the public sphere, making collaboration with them extremely limited and increasingly criminalized.