PN dijangka tuntut kerusi sama rata dalam PRN Melaka, kata penganalisis

Perikatan Nasional (PN) is anticipated to claim at least half of the 28 DUN seats in the Melaka PRN election, according to political analyst Syaza Shukri. The proposed distribution is likely to be based on PN's victories in three Melaka parliamentary constituencies during the 2015 general election. The Barisan Nasional (BN) failed to win any parliamentary seats in the state during the 2015 general election, despite securing a landslide victory in the PRN Melaka held a year earlier.

During the PRN Negeri Sembilan on August 1, BN contested 25 out of 36 seats, while the remaining 11 were given to PN to prevent further fragmentation among themselves. However, Syaza predicts that the Melaka seat distribution will be closer to a 14-14 formula. PN has an advantage as it controls three parliamentary seats, while BN can leverage its strong performance in the PRN Melaka to justify its argument after winning 20 out of 28 DUN seats.

"PN has shown its growing strength since the PRN Melaka," she told FMT. PAS President Hadi Awang said on Saturday that the BN-PN cooperation in the Melaka PRN may differ from what took place in Negeri Sembilan. However, he said this depends on the local political developments. BN Melaka chairman Ab Rauf Yusof said the cooperation is ready to explore working with any party through a BN-Plus formula.

However, he warned that discussions may not necessarily lead to agreement as seat distribution needs to consider the strength of each party. The Unity Party (Bersatu) has reportedly lost its grip on the alliance, and the party is expected to contest in 16 DUN seats in Melaka, including Tanjung Bidara currently held by Rauf. It remains unclear whether PN will have a stronger grip.

Tawfik Yaakub from the University of Malaya has a slightly different view. He believes that PN's control of three parliamentary seats gives it an edge in negotiations, but it does not necessarily place the alliance in a stronger position compared to BN. "Winning parliamentary seats does not automatically mean a party automatically deserves an equal number of DUN seats," he said.

Tawfik added that BN cannot assume PN as a small player at the state level since the alliance has previously defeated BN in three parliamentary constituencies. According to him, the voting pattern at the state and federal levels can differ due to factors such as voter turnout rates, candidate characteristics, and issues that influence voters' decisions.

For now, he said the BN's position as the state government, wide support network, and recent victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan will strengthen its position in negotiations. For now, seat allocation cannot be applied too rigidly as it may not reflect the current political reality. Fair distribution should take into account the status of the incumbents, recent election results, constituency performance, and local political conditions, including the strength of diverse parties, candidate suitability, root candidate support, and ability to shift support between BN and PN voters.

According to him, the likelihood of winning should be the main consideration in seat allocation, not merely an equal division. Azmi Hassan from the Nusantara Academy also believes that BN and PN will face difficulties reaching an agreement in Melaka. He predicts that negotiations will not be based solely on PN's parliamentary or state-level strengths.

He expects Umno and other BN component parties to retain the incumbent status and contest 20 seats, while the remaining eight seats will be given to PN to be distributed among their component parties. If negotiations fail, BN may opt to cooperate with the Pakatan Harapan (PH). Syaza believes PH still has significant influence in Melaka due to its control of five DUN seats and three additional parliamentary seats won in the 2015 general election. If PH chooses to cooperate with BN, it may benefit from the alliance.