New model maps where HIV is concentrated and the disease is more advanced
A new biostatistical modeling approach has the potential to support health decisions by pinpointing where HIV is concentrated and where people living with HIV are showing signs of severe immune suppression or delayed treatment. Published in iScience, the study shows the potential of using existing health data to identify both where HIV burden is concentrated and where different forms of…
A new modeling technique has the potential to identify where HIV is most concentrated and where people living with the disease face severe immune suppression or delayed treatment, according to a study published in iScience. Researchers from the Sub-Saharan Africa Consortium for Advanced Biostatistics (SSACAB) developed a Bayesian geostatistical framework to combine geographic data with CD4 cell counts, antiretroviral treatment status, viral suppression, and various demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors.
The model was applied to surveys of 20,048 individuals between the ages of 15 and 49 living in Vulindlela and Greater Edendale in uMgungundlovu Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. The study revealed that women had a higher prevalence of HIV, while men and older adults were more likely to experience severe immunosuppression. Viral nonsuppression emerged as the strongest clinical indicator of severe disease.
The findings suggest that targeted interventions, such as mobile and community-based testing, rapid linkage to treatment, TB screening, and services for people with advanced HIV, could be more effective when tailored to local patterns of HIV prevalence and disease severity.
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