Kalshi Defends Plan to Bet on Lives of Cancer Patients
"How is this not just another type of 'death market' — like markets for war or assassination — that even Kalshi says it won’t abide?" The post Kalshi Defends Plan to Bet on Lives of Cancer Patients appeared first on Futurism .
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are known for enabling users to place bets on various ethically questionable outcomes, including the success of potentially life-saving drug trials. However, researchers view this concept as morally reprehensible and potentially dangerous to real people. The risk exists that participants in these trials may opt out if the market bets against a favorable outcome.
Robert Califf, former FDA commissioner, described this as a violation of scientific conduct. Kalshi unveiled its "biotech prediction markets pilot program" last month, the same day Donald Trump's teleprompter operator won over $100,000 betting on Trump's statements. The company contends that publicly listing contracts for trials or regulatory outcomes will provide an updated probability influenced by the existing evidence rather than sponsors' messaging.
Yet, researchers argue that these bets do not undermine research integrity but rather expose the hype surrounding biotech companies. Metastatic pancreatic cancer patient Walter Ingaharro Jr. expressed his dismay at the news, stating that gambling into the process could create an ethical mess. A Boston University professor, Joshua Pederson, wrote an opinion piece in The Guardian about his 12-year-old son with a rapidly growing tumor near his heart.
If Kalshi's prediction market were to allow bets on his son's treatment, it would feel "preposterous" to him.
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