Inflation: Rhein-Niedrigwasser kann offenbar Inflation nach oben treiben

Rhein-Niedrigwasser raises concerns of temporary inflation in Germany, according to economists. Felix Schmidt of Berenberg Bank predicts the German inflation rate could rise by half a percentage point temporarily, while ING's Carsten Brzeski anticipates consequences for living costs. Fuel prices, including diesel, are already high due to disruptions in refineries in the Gulf and Russia caused by war impacts, adds Commerzbank's Jörg Krämer.

The low water level in the Rhine is expected to exacerbate this inflationary pressure, as transport costs for various producer goods, particularly from the chemical industry and energy raw materials, increase. Higher shipping costs have risen to around 150-160 Euros per tonne from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe, compared to 45 Euros in late June.

Electricity prices at the power exchange have also risen significantly, with fossil power plants relying on river water for cooling, as highlighted by Hamburg Commercial Bank's Cyrus de la Rubia. The most direct inflationary effect is likely to come from higher fuel prices, particularly for petrol and heating oil, as the Rhine is a crucial transport route for oil products.

However, this effect might be overshadowed by developments in the Middle East, where oil prices were recently kept low due to hopes for a peaceful resolution to conflicts. Regional differences in fuel prices are already evident, with petrol and diesel in several regions being significantly more expensive than in southern and southwestern parts of Germany, according to the Bundeskartellamt.