Firm opening seen for Nifty, Sensex despite CAS confusion

Domestic markets are set to open on a firm note despite confusion surrounding closing prices due to the CAS system, which has caused significant price variance. GIFT Nifty opening at 24,729 suggests a substantial gap-up start for the markets. The primary focus is anticipated to be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes Indian equity markets are poised for a strong start, citing improved global risk sentiment due to renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement, which has led to a significant decline in crude oil prices. GIFT Nifty futures are trading above 24,700 levels, indicating a positive opening for domestic equities.

Asian markets are also trading sharply higher, adding to the improved risk appetite across global equities. The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate at 5.25% and maintain a neutral stance, with the move aimed at preserving policy flexibility. However, inflation remains a significant concern, with CPI inflation rising to 4.38% in June 2026.

Liquidity management is expected to be a central focus of the RBI's policy approach, with calibrated interventions needed to balance excess liquidity against tight financial conditions. Market participants are still adjusting to the wild swings induced by the closing auction session, with prices recovering almost all of their intraday losses after the initial drop.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have continued to buy stocks, providing further support to the market recovery. The India VIX remains relatively stable at 12.19, indicating a marginal increase in volatility but still at a comfortable level.