China’s AI revenue projected to reach US$13b on breakthroughs, adoption: Goldman Sachs
Rising cost efficiency and rapidly advancing capabilities from players like DeepSeek and MiniMax have prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its run-rate revenue forecast for China’s artificial intelligence model market by 30 per cent to US$13 billion. In a research note published on Monday, the US investment bank boosted its year-end annualised recurring revenue (ARR) projection for mainland Chinese AI…
Goldman Sachs has raised its revenue forecast for China's artificial intelligence model market by 30 percent to US$13 billion, citing breakthroughs in capabilities and adoption. The increased projection is attributed to rising cost efficiency and aggressive price cuts by players like DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Alibaba. MiniMax's H3 model, priced at 30 to 50 percent of incumbent levels, and Alibaba's Qwen3.8 Max, which ranks fourth in front-end coding globally, have contributed to this surge.
Zhipu AI and MiniMax's ARRs were also boosted to US$2.5 billion and US$1 billion, respectively. Competition for performance-to-price balance is expected to intensify, and Chinese developers are anticipated to increasingly shift towards community licenses for open-weight models. However, Goldman Sachs warns of potential geopolitical constraints, as Chinese authorities may restrict foreign downloads of model weights and overseas transfers of training data.
Written by urgent.news from SCMP Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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