What's behind having to release some prisoners early?

The government has shifted its plan to release thousands of prisoners early in England and Wales to alleviate overcrowding. Previously, people convicted of serious crimes like rape, child sex offenses, and grooming were set to be eligible for early release. However, beginning October, these individuals will no longer be included.

Some prisoners who do not fall under these exclusions might still be released after serving a third of their sentence, rather than the customary 40% or 50%. This is not the first time a Conservative or Labour government has had to release inmates early to address the issue of prison overcrowding. The prison population in August 2025 stood at 86,495, which was 97% of the available capacity.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) anticipates that the prison population will surpass capacity by November. In the long term, the MoJ projects that by 2032, prison capacity could reach approximately 99,000, but if the Sentencing Act 2026, which allows for earlier releases, is not implemented, the prisoner population could grow to about 104,000.

This has prompted the new Justice Secretary, Alex Norris, to highlight a "prison capacity crisis," necessitating the latest early release scheme. Norris announced that 5,000 prisoners will be released in October, down from the initial 6,000 due to the new exclusions. The MoJ predicts that with the Sentencing Act, the prisoner population will remain below capacity, potentially rising to around 96,000 by 2032.

Over recent decades, the prison population in England and Wales has surged, with a marked increase starting in the 1990s and peaking in 2024. This growth has been attributed, in part, to longer sentences. In 2023, the average prison sentence at crown courts in England and Wales was more than 25% longer than in 2012, with some crimes experiencing even greater increases.

Longer sentences result in more individuals serving their time in prison simultaneously. Former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke, who oversaw an independent sentencing review for Sir Keir Starmer's government, attributes this trend to a "bidding war" among political parties since the 1990s to imprison more people for extended periods.

Gauke also notes that despite falling overall crime rates in England and Wales, more people are being incarcerated for longer durations. Another factor contributing to the prison population's growth is the rising number of individuals returning to prison for breaching their release conditions. As of the year ending March 2026, there were 51,419 licence recalls in England and Wales, a 28% increase from the previous year.

Cassia Rowland from the Institute for Government (IFG) explains that most recalls stem from license condition breaches, such as missed appointments, rather than further offenses or serious risks to the public. She adds that the probation service is grappling with an overwhelmed workforce due to high caseloads and numerous vacancies, leading to inexperienced staff facing significant pressure.

Successive governments have promised to increase prison capacities, but the actual delivery has often fallen short. Between 2010 and 2024, around 13,000 new prison places were created under Conservative leadership, but about 12,500 were subsequently closed after falling into disrepair, resulting in a net gain of only around 500 new places over 14 years.

The National Audit Office (NAO) attributes this slow progress to the Ministry of Justice's unrealistic timelines and lack of coordination among government bodies. While three new prisons have opened in the past four years, adding roughly 5,000 places, delays in expanding existing prisons due to a major supplier's administration have hindered further growth.

The Prison Reform Trust's Pia Sinha emphasizes the difficulty in increasing prison capacity, citing planning hurdles, local opposition, and the lengthy construction timelines for new prisons. The Labour government has committed to building 14,000 new prison places by 2031. The MoJ has delivered approximately 3,200 places as of July, but the net gain or loss in prison spaces remains unclear.

Analysts argue that without substantial changes in how society views imprisonment as punishment or a significant long-term increase in prison construction, the system in England and Wales will continue to operate near capacity, perpetuating the need for early release schemes to prevent a capacity crisis.