James Talarico Support From Texas Independents Compared to Ken Paxton—Poll

Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 40 points among independent voters in the Texas U.S. Senate race poll released on Tuesday. Texas, once considered a staunchly conservative state, is a key target for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections as they aim to reclaim control of the Senate.

While President Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in the 2024 election, recent polls have shown Talarico with a narrow lead over Paxton, a trend expected to continue in the upcoming race. According to the Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll, Talarico is leading Paxton by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 2 percent supporting Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and 6 percent undecided.

The poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27-30, 2026, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Talarico's support among independents stands at 63 percent, while 23 percent plan to back Paxton. This represents a significant shift from 2024, when Trump led independents by just one point over former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred took 5 points over Republican Senator Ted Cruz, as reported by CNN exit polling.

Talarico has also gained support from Democratic voters, with 97 percent of them stating they will vote for him in November, while only 85 percent of Republicans said they would back Paxton. The poll also revealed Talarico's strong lead among Black and Latino voters, by 79 percent to 12 percent and 19 points respectively, marking a shift from 2024 when Trump won these groups by 10 points over Harris.

However, Paxton maintains a 14-point lead among white voters, 53 percent to 39 percent. Political scientists attribute Talarico's lead among independents to their negative perception of Trump and his failure to appeal to independents, unlike Biden and Harris. Paxton's campaign advisor, Nick Maddux, dismissed Talarico's chances, stating that November 3 will determine his fate and that his campaign resembles previous failed Democratic attempts in Texas.

Three major polls, including Fox News, Texas Public Opinion Research, and The New York Times and Siena University, have shown Talarico leading Paxton. However, prediction markets have tightened, with Kalshi and Polymarket giving Paxton a slight edge in recent months. Democrats remain hopeful that Texas could be within reach in the 2026 midterms, especially in suburban areas surrounding Austin, Dallas, and Houston, which could sway the state toward a purple status.

However, Republicans have historically outperformed among Hispanic and Latino voters in Texas, a trend that continued in the 2024 election. With President Trump's low approval ratings and Democrats hoping to capitalize on economic concerns, the 2026 midterm election remains a critical test for the party seeking to flip Texas.