Graham’s Chances of Replacing Brother on South Carolina Ballot After Debate
Graham has held a sizable lead in prediction markets, but the race remains competitive in polls.
Darline Graham's chances of securing the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary nomination have marginally improved following her debut major debate performance, yet the race continues to be highly competitive. During the debate, Graham emphasized her non-politician status, her answer to President Trump's call to serve, and her commitment to conservative priorities.
She pledged to support ending the Senate filibuster if necessary to pass the SAVE America Act, a policy closely aligned with Trump's agenda. Although there has been no immediate polling following the debate, prediction markets suggest an optimistic outlook for Graham. On Polymarket and Kalshi, she was priced as the frontrunner with roughly 62 percent and 63 percent, respectively, compared to 19 percent and 17.4 percent for her opponents, Ralph Norman and Russell Fry.
Prior to the debate, Graham's chances were slightly lower at 59.4 percent on Polymarket and 60.4 percent on Kalshi. Graham's advantage may stem from her incumbency, endorsement from Trump, and access to his extensive political network. Although recent polls indicate a closer contest, a runoff election appears plausible under South Carolina law, which calls for one if no candidate achieves a 50 percent threshold.
Polls show Graham and Norman in a tight race, with Graham slightly ahead, while Fry remains competitive as well, depending on the runoff scenario.
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