Canada can double uranium exports by 2035, but execution remains biggest risk, Marsh says
The country is the world’s second largest producer.
Canada possesses the necessary resources and pipeline projects to potentially double its uranium exports by 2035, according to Raul Munoz, a mining risk expert at Marsh Canada. The nation ranks second globally in uranium production, following Kazakhstan, with all resources sourced from high-grade mines like McArthur River and Cigar Lake in northern Saskatchewan, operated by Cameco.
McClean Lake, managed by Orano Canada, processes ore from Cigar Lake. Canada's production currently doesn't include domestic enrichment facilities, as its CANDU reactors use unenriched uranium. The primary challenge lies in execution, not technical feasibility, according to Munoz. The issue is advancing projects through permitting, financing, and policy implementation swiftly enough.
Munoz highlighted Canada's staggering reserves and high-grade uranium, with projects like NexGen Energy's Rook I and Denison Mines' Wheeler River project as evidence. The main risks are policy, capital, and uranium prices, with a need for sustained prices to justify continued investment. Geopolitics, particularly relationships with European and U.S. customers, also plays a significant role.
Canada's expansion into small modular reactors (SMRs) creates a gap in enriched uranium production, as many SMR designs require enriched uranium, which Canada doesn't produce. However, Munoz expressed confidence in Canada's SMR capabilities, seeing little technological risk. The federal strategy extends beyond production, focusing on innovation, Indigenous participation, and sustainability.
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