A majority of Americans don’t actually fit either climate camp
An analysis of 20 years of polling data shows how age, education and income—in addition to political affiliation—shape views on climate policy
A new analysis of two decades of polling data reveals that Americans' views on climate change are far more nuanced than the common Democrat-Republican dichotomy suggests. While party identification remains the strongest influence on climate attitudes, researchers found that age, income, ethnicity, and education also play significant roles in shaping individual opinions.
The study, conducted by Mayank Kerjiwal of the Information Science Institute at USC and graduate student Yidan Sun, analyzed responses from an annual Gallup Poll survey conducted between 2000 and 2020. The researchers examined how support for 14 different climate-related policy proposals varied within and across political parties.
Party affiliation continues to be a powerful predictor of climate beliefs, with Democrats generally expressing more concern and Republicans showing more skepticism. However, the partisan divide on climate change has become more pronounced since Donald Trump's election in 2016. In 2017, climate concern increased among Democrats and Independents, while remaining relatively flat among Republicans.
The biggest divide within the Republican party is among younger voters. Republicans under 35 are more likely to support renewable energy and oppose fossil fuel development compared to older Republicans. However, young Republicans are still less likely to support policies like carbon taxes compared to their older counterparts.
Similarly, within the Democratic party, education emerges as a key factor in determining climate attitudes. Higher levels of education are associated with greater support for various climate policies. Education has a much smaller impact on Republican beliefs.
The researchers found that just over one-quarter (26.8%) of Democrats, as well as 36.3% of Republicans and 42.6% of Independents, fall into a "mixed middle" group—individuals with contradictory views on climate issues rather than clear-cut opinions. To sway this group, messages that link climate policies to economic or public health benefits may be particularly effective, the study suggests.
Written by urgent.news from Anthropocene Magazine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
