Keeping up with UP: Does Owaisi threaten Akhilesh Yadav’s hold over Muslim voters

Akhilesh Yadav, son of BSP leader Mayawati, now confronts the challenge of holding onto Muslim voters, a role once dominated by his mother. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once supported Mayawati as the first Dalit chief minister of Uttar Pradesh in 1995, following the BSP’s break from the Samajwadi Party (SP). This move alarmed Yadav, who warned that the community would never return to the Congress Party, which had supported them until then. Despite the BSP’s dwindling support, a significant portion of Muslims remain loyal to the party.

Akhilesh Yadav now faces a similar predicament with the Muslim vote. Asaduddin Owaisi, leader of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), has called for an alliance with the Opposition bloc ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh elections. Owaisi believes the time is ripe to discuss cooperation, rather than waiting until after the elections.

AIMIM’s support, however, has been minimal, securing only 0.49% of votes in the 2022 election. The party contested 94 seats in alliance with smaller parties, failing to win any of them.

In Bihar, AIMIM secured five seats in the 2025 assembly polls, thanks to support from Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP lacks secular allies, and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s hostile stance towards Muslims strengthens the case for voting for Akhilesh Yadav’s opposition alliance.

Voters in Uttar Pradesh tend to vote for the candidate they perceive as strong, rather than supporting fringe parties. While Owaisi’s oratory may attract some Muslim votes, he cannot garner non-Muslim support, making the BSP a more viable option despite perceptions that voting for Mayawati is akin to voting for the BJP.

With Nitish Kumar removed as Bihar’s chief minister, Muslims in the region are growing increasingly cautious. The BJP has governed Uttar Pradesh twice since 2017 without Muslim backing, aiming to weaken the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) influence over Muslim voters, who constitute nearly 20% of the electorate. SP parliamentarian Iqra Hasan is emerging as a potential leader, and the Congress also lacks a prominent Muslim leader in the state.

In this context, Akhilesh Yadav is seen as a potential leader by Muslims and Rahul Gandhi at the national level. Despite Muslim frustrations, a majority will continue to support the SP-Congress alliance, just as Brahmins and Jatavs remain loyal to the BJP and the BSP. Although they may be frustrated, Muslims recognize the constraints Akhilesh Yadav faces and understand the delicate balance of power in the region.