EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a surge above 1.1500 during early European trading on Monday, driven by improved risk sentiment. The Euro gained against the US Dollar following reports that US President Donald Trump had called off a planned attack on Iran and that negotiations between the two nations would take place on the same day.

Traders are monitoring the situation regarding the US-Iran talks closely. The German Retail Sales data for June is due later on Monday, and if the figures fall short of expectations, they could put pressure on the Euro. On the US side, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be released. The daily chart shows EUR/USD trading at 1.1533, struggling to break above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1569, which keeps the overall sentiment bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 62.5, indicating positive momentum, but the price remains below the key trend average, hinting at a potential rebound within a broader downtrend. Immediate support for EUR/USD is near the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1529, with the 20-day SMA middle band at 1.1430 and the lower band at 1.1331, providing additional cushioning in case of further selling pressure.

A daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 could help alleviate bearish pressure and pave the way for a more sustained recovery.