Bitcoin may find bear market bottom in August: 10x Research
Bitcoin could confirm an August bear-market bottom, though rising Treasury yields could force the Fed to raise rates in September, according to 10x Research.
10x Research suggests Bitcoin may confirm a bear-market bottom in August, with a monthly close above $63,000. Founder Markus Thielen explained that a monthly close near this threshold would turn several of their cycle indicators bullish. Bitcoin traded at $63,140 when the research was prepared, meaning a slight gain from July’s closing level could trigger the reversal signal.
The firm maintains a long position stance but would shift to neutral if key support levels and moving averages are breached. The base case remains a steady Federal Reserve interest rates, though higher 10-year Treasury yields could force a September rate hike. The mining sector could generate around 100,000 BTC of selling pressure as some miners shift to artificial intelligence.
Additional supply may come from Bitcoin treasury companies unwinding positions, though macroeconomic conditions pose the biggest risk to the market. Bitcoin's monthly RSI chart is available through 10x Research. Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl posited that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle suggests, with a potential low in September or October.
Pandl emphasized that macroeconomic factors, particularly Fed policy, would primarily drive Bitcoin's price and determine its bottoming point.
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