Pain or gain? US moves to decouple its defence industry from China’s rare earths

In less than four months, New Zealand has established three significant Pacific defence agreements, all aimed at countering China's growing influence in the region. The latest of these agreements was signed in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, where Defence Minister Chris Penk joined his counterpart, Elias Kapavore, to expand joint maritime surveillance, military exercises, and personnel exchanges.

Analysts attribute these actions to concerns over China's increasing security and policing ties in the Pacific, stating that the agreements are attempts to prevent China from establishing security connections with Pacific states.

Since April, New Zealand has also signed a defence pact with Papua New Guinea and entered into a security declaration with the Cook Islands. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has signaled interest in joining a new Australia-Fiji defence alliance, suggesting the country's Pacific push is far from over. However, concerns remain about China's efforts to build defence influence among New Zealand's neighbors, which, according to Estelle Denton-Townshend, a teaching fellow in international security at the University of Waikato, could leave Wellington "more vulnerable to coercion."

The new defence pacts come amid growing doubts about the reliability of the US as an ally, with US President Donald Trump's erratic policies and the Pentagon's more hawkish stance creating an opening for China to present itself as a more dependable long-term partner. While Beijing denies any intention of establishing a security sphere of influence over Pacific nations, New Zealand has shown reluctance to fully engage with China on security matters, particularly following the Cook Islands' signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership with China last year.