Global wheat output may drop 24 million tonnes next season on Iran war, El Nino impacts
The global wheat market balance in 2026-27 could become a little worrisome in the 2027-28 season, say analysts
Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 23 million tonnes (mt) in the 2026-27 season, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Farmers in North America, the European Union, the UK, and Australia are reducing acreage or switching crops due to El Niño-induced risks and higher input costs linked to the Iran conflict.
The situation could worsen in 2027-28 if the strong El Niño persists. Geopolitical tensions, including the Ukraine war and Iran conflict, further complicate the outlook. Global wheat consumption is projected to rise to 828 mt, while trade is expected to fall to 205 mt. Ending stocks are forecast to drop to 279 mt, from 285 mt. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates a 3% year-on-year decline in global output, despite higher production in Russia and Ukraine.
US wheat acreage is at its lowest level in nearly a century, and US farmers have shifted to alternative crops due to rising fertiliser costs. El Niño is expected to further reduce production later in the year, causing tight global supplies.
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