With two weeks to go, the Victorian election is the Coalition’s to lose
The campaign so far has been rough for Labor. One Nation is also having a bumpy ride.
As the Victorian election campaign nears its end, the Coalition, led by Jess Wilson, appears to be on track for victory. Recent polls indicate a significant lead for the Coalition, with 31% of the vote, compared to 23% for Labor and 22% for One Nation. The Greens trail at 15%. The two-party preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor stands at 57-43. While other polls show similar trends, predicting seat counts in parliament is complicated due to the close races and high support for One Nation and the Greens.
The campaign has been challenging for Labor, which has fallen further behind since entering the election. The party's difficulties are compounded by corruption allegations, a royal commission into the construction industry, and rising cost-of-living concerns. Additionally, Labor's leader, Jacinta Allan, was replaced by Ben Carroll in July, making it harder for the government to run on its record. Union criticism of the government's infrastructure and industrial relations policies has also impacted Labor's standing.
The Coalition has focused on consolidating its position and avoiding internal issues that plagued the party in recent years. They have made few policy announcements, concentrating on the economy, law and order, and reforming the government. However, criticism from some Liberal MPs and candidates suggests too tight control over public appearances.
One Nation's campaign has been tumultuous, with issues surrounding policy cost calculations and controversial statements from its leader, Warren Pickering. The party remains strong in the polls, potentially winning seats and having a significant presence in the upper house due to a Liberal-One Nation preference deal.
The Greens campaign has centered on issues like public housing, rent controls, transport, and dental care. They aim to replace Labor and have targeted several inner-city Labor seats. Their support is expected to increase as Labor's vote declines, but media attention remains limited.
The election also reflects a broader change in party systems. In Victoria, the combined support for major parties has dropped from over 92% in 1999 to just over 71% in 2022. If current polling is accurate, the 2026 election could see Victoria's electorate consolidating around four main party groups: the Coalition, Labor, the Greens, and One Nation. This shift could lead to a centre-right government with a strong presence for a populist right-wing party, potentially impacting policies like the First Nations Treaty.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
