US midterms won’t derail Venezuela’s oil recovery but could delay greenfield upside
The Democratic victory in the 2026 US midterm elections has given the party control of both chambers of Congress, limiting President Trump’s domestic agenda from January 2027. However, foreign policy remains largely within the president’s remit, as demonstrated by his interventions in Venezuela this year, from the capture of Nicolas Maduro to the reopening of ...
The recent Democratic victory in the 2026 US midterm elections has resulted in control of both chambers of Congress, potentially impacting President Trump's domestic agenda from January 2027. However, foreign policy, including Venezuela's oil sector, remains largely under the president's control. Rystad Energy's analysis suggests that Venezuela's near-term oil recovery will not be significantly affected by the election outcome.
The primary driver of the near-term recovery is brownfield activity, such as well reactivations and workovers, which require fewer new approvals and have shorter lead times. This activity is expected to increase crude production from 1.2 million bpd in October 2026 to around 1.5 million bpd by 2028. However, longer-term growth will depend on greenfield developments, which could be delayed by congressional scrutiny, potentially delaying around 0.5 million bpd of potential production growth until after 2040.
The impact of this delay is expected to be concentrated in longer-cycle projects, rather than the brownfield-led recovery anticipated in the near future.
Brief written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
