This 27-Year-Old Warning From Warren Buffett Is More Important Than Ever for Investors Today
It's easy to predict that new technology will have a huge impact on society; it's not so easy to predict which companies will profit.
In 1999, Warren Buffett delivered a warning to investors regarding the internet industry, which still holds relevance today. While he acknowledged the internet's transformative potential, he cautioned against investing in e-commerce companies. This warning applies to all industries experiencing rapid technological advancements, according to Buffett.
He encouraged investors to focus on a company's competitive advantage and the durability of that advantage, rather than the industry's societal impact or growth potential. He pointed to examples like the automobile and aviation industries, where initial enthusiasm led to few lasting successful investments. He observed that the aviation industry, despite its massive impact on travel, had no profits by 1992.
Similarly, he warned about the artificial intelligence industry, which requires significant capital for data centers and faces intense competition among compute providers and AI labs. Buffett noted that it's difficult to predict which companies will become the long-term profit makers in such industries. He emphasized that Alphabet's AI business has a moat due to its comprehensive stack, including chip design, cloud infrastructure, and advertising.
This moat enables Google to achieve high returns on its invested capital, unlike neocloud companies that lack a competitive advantage. As AI-linked companies account for a significant portion of the S&P 500's market cap, the warning of Buffett's 27-year-old warning is more important than ever.
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