The Guardian view on Cop31: the green transition must not be derailed | Editorial

The Cop31 climate talks have unexpectedly offered delegates a brief reprieve from the pressure of negotiations. The return of Brazil's former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in his party's second round of presidential elections was significant for several reasons. If his opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, had won, it would have signified a major step backward for environmental protection.

However, Lula's victory signifies a strong endorsement for climate action, particularly in safeguarding the Amazon rainforest. Similarly, the Democrats' victories in the US midterms suggest that Donald Trump's harmful policies are being weakened. If the Democrats regain the White House in 2028, the US should rejoin the UN climate process ahead of Cop34.

Although the diplomatic situation appears less dire than earlier, the risk remains elevated and increasing. António Guterres, the outgoing UN secretary general, warned bluntly that "it's make or bake time" during his final Cop as head of the UN. The latest projections indicate a potential temperature rise of 2.7C by the century's end, far surpassing the 1.5C target set in the Paris Agreement.

Governments now face a critical juncture: by shifting away from fossil fuels, they can still prevent the most catastrophic consequences. However, the UK's only G7 leader to attend Cop31 was Andy Burnham from the UK, while the French and German leaders opted for an EU summit instead. This absence of key leaders fuels concerns of inaction and a lack of urgency in addressing climate change.

The warnings of escalating dangers and unforeseen disasters, such as the glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border, can induce feelings of paralysis or disconnect. The actions of both host countries also contributed to public discontent. Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, publicly advocated for his country's oil reserves, while Australia's Anthony Albanese failed to mention fossil fuels during his speech.

Despite these shortcomings, the UN climate process remains essential. There is no substitute for a global mechanism to facilitate the transition to a greener economy. Burnham's appointment of a climate security advisor, Madeleine Alessandri, is a positive move for the UK. However, Kemi Badenoch's opposition to net zero has undermined an essential cross-party consensus on climate action.

Ministers in the UK must now decide on the fate of the Rosebank oil and gas field. The economic harm caused by carbon emissions from oil and gas production would far outweigh any potential benefits. Developing nations cannot be expected to abandon coal and oil consumption if rich countries continue to invest in these industries.

Reaching a consensus to derive 35% of the world's energy from electricity by 2035 will be challenging, particularly if objections arise from fossil fuel producers. It is crucial to resist efforts to undermine the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which supplies the scientific foundation for the climate negotiation process.

Improved accountability in climate finance is also urgently required. Poor countries cannot be expected to tolerate endless delays in receiving the financial assistance they need to transition towards a sustainable future. Despite the challenges, a substantial majority of the global public acknowledges the threat of global heating and supports actions by governments to combat it.

This support stems from a growing understanding that the green transition is not only environmentally necessary but also socially just. The courage and leadership of those pushing for a faster shift away from fossil fuels, both at Cop31 and nationally, are crucial to driving this transformative change.