Press Metal Q3 earnings seen falling up to 18pct on weaker aluminium prices

KUALA LUMPUR: Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd anticipates a decline in net profit by 11 to 18 percent for Q3 2026, primarily due to falling aluminium prices. Aluminium prices dropped nine percent quarter-over-quarter to $3,228 per tonne, while the Main Japanese Ports (MJP) premium decreased four percent to $303 per tonne. Alumina prices rose nine percent quarter-over-quarter, raising the spot alumina-to-aluminium cost ratio to 11 percent, up from nine percent in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, earnings are expected to rise by three to 11 percent, driven by higher aluminium prices and lower alumina costs, offsetting some of the impact from increased carbon anode costs. Globally, aluminium production fell two percent year-on-year, while consumption grew three percent. Press Metal will release its Q3 2026 financial results on November 26.

RHB Research increased its alumina cost assumptions due to elevated costs expected until the end of 2026. The MJP premium has eased to $232 per tonne as war-related risk premiums subside, lowering the year-to-date average to $268 per tonne. If the same trend continues in Q4, the 2026 average could reach $235 to $245, lower than previous estimates.

RHB Research has reduced its earnings forecasts for FY26 by 4.4 percent and for FY27 by 2.7 percent, while keeping FY28 projections largely unchanged after adjusting alumina costs and lowering the MJP premium. The target price was lowered from RM9.30 to RM9.05, with a Buy rating maintained. Despite the outlook, RHB Research remains positive and sees the sell-off as an opportunity to accumulate shares.