OPINIÃO. Um Governo negacionista exige um Senado independente

Presidente Dilma Rousseff's return brings her controversial economic policies back to the forefront, as the Lula administration seeks to implement a new independent Senate. The "PEC da Transição" package, which led to the current fiscal crisis with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 84% (13 percentage points higher than the previous administration), now faces a new set of challenges.

The Senate is discussing a Complementary Project of Law that restricts tax compensation for businesses, leaving taxpayers with the burden. Companies will have limited access to liquid credits for debt tax payments, effectively transferring funds to the government. The proposal also aims to reduce social security contributions by 75% from 2027 to 2030 and cut annual Kandir transfers from R$4 billion to R$1 billion until 2030, affecting states and municipalities.

These changes will reduce resources for fulfilling commitments and scheduled expenses. The proposed amendments seek to limit real spending growth to 0.6% annually and maintain tax expenditure reductions if economic benefits are not used for new expenses. Critics argue that the government's projections of 2.46% GDP growth and 3.6% inflation are unrealistic, leading to a loss of credibility.

The current fiscal situation is exacerbated by high public debt and a growing number of indebted families and businesses. The Senate must shift its approach to fiscal oversight, acting as a check on the executive branch and proposing balanced measures for the nation.