Is the AI job apocalypse finally here? The evidence suggests otherwise | John Quiggin

The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on job losses at major Australian companies remains uncertain, but it may prove to have a more significant effect on the stock market than on the labor market. This perspective is supported by the evidence surrounding job losses at NAB, Qantas, Canva, and Atlassian. However, the evidence suggests that the hype surrounding AI's impact on productivity has not materialized.

The main economic consequences of AI adoption, similar to the dotcom era in the 1990s, have been a stock market boom and substantial investments in infrastructure, anticipating future demand that has yet to emerge. Despite large-scale job losses at some companies, the evidence indicates that these are not unprecedented events. NAB, for instance, has a history of mass layoffs every year since 2010, while its total employment numbers have remained stable.

Similarly, Qantas' decision to outsource jobs to India aligns with the airline's strategy of offshoring and claiming preferential treatment as a national flag carrier. The assertion by Qantas that these jobs will eventually be replaced by AI weakens their case. Canva faces a more significant threat due to the accessibility of AI-generated design tools, which may lead to a decline in demand for its services.

Atlassian's software offerings, focusing on project management and data organization, are harder to replicate with AI, but it remains to be seen if AI can reverse-engineer such software. Lastly, it's essential to acknowledge that AI hyperscalers like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Alphabet also face potential threats from emerging "open-weight" models.

If LLMs become essential but not profitable, the impact may be more significant on the stock market than on the jobs market.