How the Democrats’ midterm victory could reshape the rules for electing a US president

The recent Democratic triumph in the midterm elections has the potential to bring about significant changes in the process of electing the President of the United States. One of the most noteworthy aspects of the American political system is that, unlike most presidential democracies, the President is not directly elected by the people, but rather chosen by an Electoral College.

This system allocates each of the 50 states a number of electors equal to its representation in Congress – two senators per state plus a variable number of members of the House, based on population. The District of Columbia also receives a number of electors, currently three.

In the November 3 elections, the Democrats secured control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. This victory has opened up the possibility of implementing a reform known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a proposal that was first introduced in 2007.

Unlike a constitutional amendment, which would be extremely difficult to achieve, the compact is a legal framework designed to bypass the need for such a change. The compact would allocate all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes nationwide, regardless of the margin of victory. Currently, 18 states and the District of Columbia have adopted the compact, accounting for 270 electoral votes – the same number required to win the presidency.

If Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which have recently switched to Democratic control, join the compact, their combined 61 electoral votes would be sufficient to trigger its implementation.

While there are supporters of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, there are also critics who argue that it may violate the Compact Clause of the U.S. Constitution, found in Article I, Section 10. This clause prohibits states from entering into agreements or compacts with each other, or with foreign powers, without congressional approval.

Implementing the compact via this route is easier than pursuing a constitutional amendment, but it is also more susceptible to withdrawal. Should Republicans regain control of a state government, they could choose to leave the compact, thus weakening its impact. Additionally, demographic trends may not remain consistently favorable to Democrats, as population shifts could lead to an increase in the number of traditionally red states.