Explainer: Kenya’s Monday rain forecast and counties to watch

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a warning that heavy rainfall during the October-December rainy season could lead to flooding, waterlogging, and damage to infrastructure in 44 counties across Kenya. In its recent daily forecast, the KMD stated that light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, is expected to occur in various parts of the country between 9 pm on Sunday and 9 pm on Monday, November 16.

The forecast covers 44 counties, including Taita Taveta, Kisii, Nyamira, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Vihiga, Homa Bay, and Migori, among others. The KMD noted that the ongoing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is linked to El Niño and La Niña events, is a significant factor influencing the rainfall patterns. In Taita Taveta, light to moderate rainfall and thunderstorms are expected over some areas, while moderate showers and thunderstorms are forecasted in Kisii, with similar conditions expected in Nyamira, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Vihiga, Homa Bay, and Migori.

The KMD emphasized that excessive rainfall could trigger flooding, waterlogging, soil erosion, and increased crop pests and diseases, potentially disrupting farming activities. They highlighted the risk of flash floods, riverine flooding, and landslides in vulnerable areas, particularly low-lying coastal regions, flood-prone river basins, urban centres with inadequate drainage systems, and steep highland areas.

To mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall, the KMD advised farmers to maintain drainage channels, conserve soil moisture, and clear drainage channels to prevent waterlogging and flooding. They also recommended the construction of water-harvesting structures to capture excess runoff. The KMD classified moderate rainfall as between 5mm and 20mm within 24 hours, heavy rainfall between 21mm and 50mm, and very heavy rainfall exceeding 50mm within the same period.

The department's November 16 daily forecast indicates that while rainfall is expected in 44 counties, not all of them will face a flood risk. Residents in areas near rivers, low-lying settlements, and those with inadequate drainage systems are advised to stay alert, monitor official weather updates, and take necessary precautions during the rainy season.