‘Dog that got the car’: Oilpatch is getting what it wanted, but will companies build?

Calgary, Alberta - Alberta Premier Danielle Smith aims to double oilsands production over the next decade, which has reportedly encouraged industry players to consider new projects. This shift is attributed to recent federal and provincial policy changes favoring the oilpatch. University of Calgary's R.J. Johnston likened this to "the dog that got the car," as industry members are eager to invest following these policy changes.

Ottawa has implemented several measures to support this goal, including repealing environmental policies from the Trudeau era and making certain investments eligible for immediate tax deductions. Alberta recently introduced a new royalty program to spur development, and both governments are contributing significantly to the Pacific Link pipeline, which will facilitate greater exports to Asia.

However, experts suggest that massive investments may be challenging to achieve due to competing capital demands from oilpatch investors seeking healthy dividends and share buybacks. Michael Berger, a senior analyst at Enverus, stated that producers are currently prioritizing debt reduction and shareholder returns. Nonetheless, there remains an appetite for growth among major oilsands operators, who have long-term investment horizons.

Recent third-quarter conference calls from Canada's largest oilsands producers reveal optimism about pursuing expansion, provided the right conditions are met. Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, and Cenovus Energy have all expressed their interest in growth opportunities, contingent upon technology advancements, project economics, and the overall fiscal environment.