Can ICJ's ruling on Myanmar's Rohingya genocide affect South Africa's case on Israel? - explainer

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to deliver a ruling this week on Myanmar's alleged genocide against its Rohingya minority. This decision, although the ICJ has previously found atrocities to be genocide, has never formally held a country responsible for such an act. Yanghee Lee, a former UN rights investigator, emphasized the historic significance of the ruling for Rohingya survivors around the world.

The case, filed by Gambia at the ICJ in 2019, accuses Myanmar of committing genocide against the mainly Muslim Rohingya minority in the remote western Rakhine state. Myanmar's military offensive in 2017 led to the displacement of at least 730,000 Rohingya into neighboring Bangladesh, where they recounted atrocities like killings, mass rape, and arson.

US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz warned against the ICJ lowering the legal threshold for proving genocide, fearing it could be weaponized against American and allied soldiers. The ruling is expected to impact South Africa's case against Israel for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

South Africa initially brought the accusation against Israel before the ICJ in December 2023, alleging violations of the Genocide Convention. Israel rejected the allegation as "baseless." The ICJ's ruling could set a precedent, given that Gambia's case against Myanmar provided South Africa with legal precedent. The ICJ has rarely handled genocide cases, with its last direct ruling in 2007 regarding Serbia's failure to prevent the 1995 Srebrenica genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

While other international bodies have held tribunals for war crimes in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and the ICC has jurisdiction in genocide cases, the ICJ requires both parties to consent to its jurisdiction, which in this case includes Russia, Myanmar, and Israel.