Asia week ahead: Japan GDP and key data from China and Taiwan
China: Domestic weakness persists as IP outperforms China releases its key domestic activity data for October on Monday. After a surprisingly solid September, we expect retail sales growth to moderate to 0.7% YoY as consumption stays soft amid weak discretionary consumption. After stabilising last month, fixed asset investment growth could see a smaller drag in ...
Asia's economic landscape takes center stage as Japan's GDP figures and crucial data from China and Taiwan are set to hit the market next week. China's domestic activity data for October is expected to show a cooling retail sales growth to 0.7% YoY, with consumer spending remaining subdued due to weak discretionary spending. Fixed asset investment growth may see a slight slowdown as public investment picks up, with headline fixed asset investment (FAI) projected to rise to -6.7% YoY YTD.
Industrial production, however, is anticipated to remain the growth driver, maintaining its consistency at 5.5% YoY. Observers will also keep a close eye on the 70-city property price data, which has been showing stabilization in Tier 1 and select Tier 2 cities. China's loan prime rates, the 1- and 5-year LPRs, are slated for release later in the week, with the rates expected to stay unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
Taiwan's export orders are projected to continue their growth trajectory, with Taiwan releasing its export orders data next Friday. Expectations are for a robust 67.0% YoY growth in October. This indicator will be closely monitored for indications that the AI capital expenditure cycle may be decelerating. Taiwanese corporations have signaled full order books on an 18-month rolling basis, suggesting ongoing momentum.
Meanwhile, Japan's third-quarter GDP and trade data will be key, with the market anticipating a sharp slowdown in growth to 0.1% QoQ from 0.4% previously. Private consumption is expected to contract by 0.2%, spurred by the expiration of energy subsidies. Imports are forecast to surge to 25.9% YoY, driven by energy and capital equipment, while exports are projected to grow to 20.1%, extending the streak of 13 consecutive months of YoY gains.
This is expected to result in a trade balance deficit of JPY1,067 billion. Japan will also release its inflation data next Friday, with the market anticipating headline inflation to accelerate to 2.5% YoY from 2.1% in September, with core CPI rising to 2.3%. A strong inflation reading could bolster expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalization.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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