Will a UN genocide verdict stop Asean from welcoming Myanmar back?

Myanmar faces a crucial week as neighboring countries contemplate the future of their relationship with the country following its military coup. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to issue a verdict on Thursday, determining whether Myanmar committed genocide against its Muslim Rohingya minority. This case looms over the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) conference, where the bloc is debating whether to re-include Myanmar in its summits after the 2021 military takeover.

Rohingya activists hope the court's ruling will weigh heavily on Asean leaders when they gather in the Philippines starting Sunday. A 25-year-old Yangon-based Rohingya activist said, "We are waiting for the outcome to see if Asean leaders will welcome those responsible for our suffering." The UN court case and Asean's diplomatic dilemma are linked, as both center on the individual of Min Aung Hlaing.

As the Asean bloc has excluded Myanmar leaders from conferences since the coup, the ICJ case could weaken Min Aung Hlaing's efforts to normalize relations. However, he has already received a red-carpet welcome from several Asean members, including Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Malaysia, despite its recent crackdown on Rohingya refugees, has also extended a warm reception to Min Aung Hlaing.

Myanmar's military leader was re-elected as president in April, following elections dismissed by international observers. Despite concerns from rights groups about the fate of returning refugees, Malaysia has pledged to facilitate Myanmar's reintegration into Asean. Experts predict that even if the ICJ ruling impacts Asean's willingness to accept Min Aung Hlaing, diplomatic relations will eventually normalize, with Thailand, the bloc's rotating chair, leading the way.