Umno’s future hinges on partnership with PAS, says analyst

A political analyst has stated that the upcoming Malaysian general election, scheduled for early 2028, will largely hinge on the collaboration between Umno and PAS. James Chin of the University of Tasmania explained that Malay votes, traditionally split between these two parties, are now being consolidated through their partnership, granting them a significant edge in Malay-majority constituencies.

Chin emphasized that the amalgamation of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), where Umno and PAS are the key players, has demonstrated their combined electoral strength.

According to Chin, the Melaka election results, which saw the BN-PN alliance secure a supermajority of 24 out of 28 seats in the state assembly, do not indicate a revival of Umno's electoral fortunes on its own. Instead, Umno's future hinges on its partnership with PAS. He added that as long as they maintain this cooperation, Umno will be well-positioned to win the upcoming general election.

The BN-PN alliance triumphed in Melaka with 24 out of 28 seats, while Umno contested 23 seats and PAS, Wawasan, and Gerakan of PN fielded candidates in the remaining five seats, avoiding direct competition. In the 2021 state election, Umno achieved a two-thirds majority in Melaka, winning 21 seats, although an Umno assemblyman later defected to PAS.

Chin noted that the BN-PN cooperation could bolster Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's political ambitions, positioning him as a potential prime minister after the 16th general election. Political analyst Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Zahid's confidence to distance Umno from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan would be strengthened by this collaboration.

Both Umno and PAS acknowledged the mutual importance of their partnership, as the results in Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka would have been different if BN contested independently. While PAS currently holds more parliamentary seats than Umno and demonstrates dominance in states like Perak and Pahang, they both recognize their interdependence.