Umno hasn’t shown it can stand alone without allies, says analyst

An analyst has warned that the Umno party must assess its capacity to win seats independently, should the PAS party decide to withdraw its support or pursue a different path. This comes as a call for dissolving Parliament has been put forward by Umno President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri, from Global Asia Consulting, emphasized that Umno has not yet demonstrated its ability to function independently.

He cautioned against assuming victory purely due to the alliance with PAS, as each state presents unique demographic and political factors. The analyst pointed out that Umno's recent success in Melaka does not guarantee nationwide wins, as different regions possess varying voter sentiments and rivalries. In the 2022 general election, the alliance between Barisan Nasional and PAS secured only 30 parliamentary seats, in contrast to 79 seats in 2018.

The analyst questioned whether Umno has successfully regained the support of young and Malay voters, who previously shifted allegiance to Perikatan Nasional. Umno's reliance on PAS's support is seen as a risky gamble, as PAS carefully considers the political implications of each decision. The biggest challenge lies in seat allocation, particularly in states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis, where PAS is likely to defend its seats.

There is uncertainty about PAS's willingness to cede its seats to Umno, and recent studies suggest PAS holds more influence in Selangor. The analyst suggested that Umno should explore cooperation with other parties, particularly Pakatan Harapan, to make seat allocation easier, given PH's focus on urban and mixed-seat areas.