Trump, Xi and Putin summit raises fears of a ‘Yalta 2.0’

The prospect of a summit involving China's President Xi Jinping, the United States' President Donald Trump, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin has sparked concerns reminiscent of the 1945 Yalta Conference. This conference, held between Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin, set the stage for post-WWII territorial divisions in Europe, leading to Soviet control over Eastern Europe and the onset of the Cold War.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that such a summit could lead to a "Yalta-like redistribution of spheres of influence" in the 21st century. At a recent meeting in Abu Dhabi, Russian negotiators raised fears of a new security architecture for Europe, while the US floated a new framework. Russian delegation chief Vladimir Medinsky questioned Europe's inclusion in further talks, fueling concerns about the summit's implications.

Analysts argue that the summit's symbolism could send a message about the dominance of a few great powers over others, disregarding the interests of Ukraine, Europe, and Taiwan. Despite the summit's potential, divergent interests among the three leaders make the creation of a new world order unlikely. Russia has suggested focusing on Ukraine, while the US has pushed for talks on nuclear weapons and the Iran war. China has remained silent on both issues.

The main points of contention between China and the US revolve around trade and the AI technology race. China, while advocating for multilateralism, insists that Europe should participate in peace negotiations over Ukraine. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier noted Xi's irritation when the idea of trilateral talks covering Ukraine was raised, emphasizing that the conflict is European and all Europeans must be involved.

The summit is more likely to produce minor outcomes, such as crisis hotlines, cooperation on counter-terrorism, public health, or climate change. There is no single enemy to unite the three powers like the fight against Nazi Germany did for Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin. Political scientist Tsiporah Fried at the Hudson Institute warns that piecemeal horse-trading is in, while a grand bargain is out.

Taiwan, which China claims, will closely monitor the meeting, given its potential impact on international relations. The Trump administration, seeking to reassert US dominance in the Western hemisphere, may abandon partners out of convenience, raising concerns about the summit's ability to guarantee security. China has consistently opposed the Yalta logic of dividing spheres of influence and determining the fate of other nations, according to Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University.

Any Yalta 2.0 agreement is likely to face similar issues as the original Yalta, which paved the way for future conflicts and insurgencies.