The S&P 500 Has Gone 18 Months Without a 10% Drop. Here's How the Next Year Has Gone After Streaks This Long.
Only seven past stretches since 1950 lasted this long. Did a tough year normally follow?
The S&P 500 has gone without a 10% drop for 18 months, setting a new record in the process. The index closed in correction territory on April 28, 2025, at 5,528.75, which is just over 10% below its record high of 6,144.15 set on February 19. Since then, every close has remained within 10% of a record high. The longest streak without a 10% drop began in early 1991 and lasted until October 1997, almost seven years later.
A year after each past streak of this length, the index was higher in five of seven cases, with a median gain of around 7%. While an 18-month streak without a correction might make an index fund investor wonder if a fall is coming, past history shows a similar stretch didn't necessarily mean a loss. The S&P 500 ended the next 12 months higher in about 75% of cases following such streaks, with a median gain of around 11%.
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